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Vice President Biden predicts that this, at long last, will be “the summer of recovery.” The stimulus bill is working, he said, and “more people are going to be put to work this summer.” But that’s not the way things are shaping up.

副总统拜登预测，一段时间之后将会是“复苏的夏天”，刺激法案的将开始生效，并且，“更多的人将在这个夏天获得工作”，还有不一样的事情正在发生。

The latest jobs report shows that the economy shed 125,000 jobs in June. That’s more than in any month since October. Some of that was expected. The end of the census meant the disappearance of 225,000 temporary government jobs. But the crucial indicator of whether the economy is likely to add more jobs is the number of private-sector jobs created. While it’s good news that private-sector payrolls have increased for six months straight, June’s 83,000 new private-sector jobs aren’t enough to keep up with the more than 100,000 new workers who enter the labor force each month. And they’re just a small fraction of the 7.4 million jobs that have disappeared since the start of the recession.

最新的工作报告指出，在六月份到10月份期间有125,000份工作剩余，这个都是比其他月份多的。这是在某些预期里。最终人口普查的结果显示，有225,000个政府临时工职位消失了。对经济是否有可能增加更多的就业机会的关键指标是私营部门创造的就业人数。然而好消息是，私营部门的工资总额6个月内直线增加，6月份的83,000个新私营工作不够赶上每个月超过100,000个新劳动力的需求。而他们只是自从经济危机之后的7.4百万工作中的一小部分。

The fact that the nominal unemployment rate actually fell slightly to 9.5% is misleading. That decline is due to the fact that people who have stopped looking for work—even if they have simply given up—aren’t counted. The broader measure of those who would like work but can’t find it stayed steady at around 16.5%, and the underlying labor force participation rate slipped 0.3%. At the same time, the mean length of time people have been looking for jobs jumped to a record—and incredible—35.5 weeks.

事实上，名义上的失业率事实上感觉说少于9.5%是挺令人费解的。这个降低是因为事实上人们已经停寻找工作，甚至他们已经简单的放弃，不参与统计。那些愿意找工作，但是又没有办法找到的维持在16.5左右，基本的劳动人口参与率下降0.3％。与此同时，人们找工作的平均时间已经超纪录，意外地达到35.5周。

With so many Americans looking for work—and now that the federal tax credit for home buyers has expired—the housing market is starting weaken again. Home sales are down 30%, in spite of record-low mortgage rates and depressed real estate prices. “It sounds simplistic but it bears repeating: ‘No job = No house,’” Mike Larson, an analyst with Weiss Research, told his clients this week. “With so many Americans unemployed or underemployed, the housing market is going to keep hurting.”

有那么多的美国人要找工作，现在联邦税收抵免已过期，住房市场再次减弱。住房销售人员降低了30%，尽管房地产价格在创记录的低抵押贷款利率令人沮丧（注：Google翻译），“这听起来简单，但再次说明，没有工作=没有房子”，这周，在Weiss研究机构当研究员的Mike Larson对他的客户说。“那么多美国人失业或者被解雇的，住房市场已经持续被打击了。”

This all suggests that the recovery has begun to stall as stimulus money has begun to run out. Although the White House is touting a host of stimulus projects taking place over the summer—huge increases in highway and clean water projects, the restoration of national parks, efforts to weatherize homes, and a substantial effort to increase broadband access in poor and rural areas—federal stimulus programs are coming to an end. And even as the federal government continues to try to stimulate the economy, state governments are drastically cutting spending. Developed countries around the world are doing the same thing, hoping to avoid debt crises like the one Greece recently faced.

这一切都表明目前的经济复苏已开始失速，作为刺激的资金已开始耗尽。虽然白宫是夏季刺激项目的主持人，大量增加高速公路和清洁水项目，恢复国家公园，建立多气候房子并且增加精力，以增加贫困和农村地区的宽带接入，联邦经济刺激计划即将结束。甚至如联邦政府想继续尝试刺激经济，州政府彻底的缩小开支，全世界发达国家也正在做同样的事，希望能避免最近像希腊那样的面临的债务危机。

Pressure is mounting in the U.S. to rein in spending too. But the U.S. is not Greece. Our economy is larger and less vulnerable to fluctuations in international trade, and our debt load is still more manageable. Concern over the long-term consequences of deficit spending is understandable. There is a real question whether we will ever have the political will to make the deep cuts we will have to get our finances in order. Nevertheless, the evidence is mounting that now is not the time to tighten our belts. Temporary stimulus spending has a relatively small effect on long-term deficits. But investing in bringing our economy back up to capacity could actually reduce long-term deficits by increasing government revenues. It was, as David Leonhardt reminds us, a disaster when we tried to rein in deficit spending in the 1930s before the economy had recovered. As it is, it looks like we’re in for another difficult economic summer.

在美国压力支配着开支（?），但美国不同于希腊。我们的经济更大一些，并且在世界贸易里不容易起伏，并且我们的债务负担仍是容易控制的。赤字开支的长期后果担忧是可以理解的。有一个实际的问题是，（我们永远不会有政治意愿，使我们必须大幅度削减，以便让我们的财政状况好转）（?）。不过越来越多的证据显示，现在没有时间勒紧裤腰带。临时性的刺激开支对长期赤字已经收到成效。但是，使我们的投资在经济恢复到容量实际上可以增加政府收入减少长期赤字。正如David Leonhardt提醒我们，当我们试图控制在20世纪30年代赤字开支的灾难，但经济已经复苏。也正如，它看起来像我们处在另一个艰难的经济夏季。

原文地址：http://bigthink.com/ideas/20768

======乱七八糟的分隔线======

这篇就没啥好说的了，大部分参考Google翻译，很多压根就看不懂是什么意思，连起码的单词都无法理解。

下周需要参加考试，所以下周停止一周，12号开始重新更新。

帅青蛙 译
2010-07-04  23:11